India’s trade performance in the financial year (FY) 2024-2025 (April 2024–March 2025) reflects a resilient external sector navigating global economic challenges, including geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating commodity prices. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and other authoritative sources, India’s total exports (merchandise and services combined) are projected to surpass the previous year’s record, while imports have seen moderated growth. This article provides a detailed analysis of India’s trade balance, export and import trends, and the top five trading partners based on trade volumes, ensuring accuracy with published data up to May 2025.

Trade Balance Overview

India’s trade balance, the difference between exports and imports, remains a critical indicator of its economic health. For FY 2024-2025, the cumulative trade deficit (merchandise and services combined) is expected to narrow slightly compared to FY 2023-2024, driven by robust export growth and a decline in certain import categories. The merchandise trade deficit, however, continues to dominate due to India’s reliance on imported energy and raw materials.

Total Exports (April–December 2024): Estimated at USD 602.64 billion, reflecting a 6.03% growth over USD 568.36 billion in the same period of FY 2023-2024.

Total Imports (April–December 2024): Estimated at USD 677.44 billion, a 5.66% decrease from USD 718.04 billion in FY 2023-2024.

Projected Full-Year Exports (FY 2024-2025): USD 820.93 billion, a 5.50% increase from USD 778.02 billion in FY 2023-2024.

Merchandise Exports (FY 2024-2025): USD 437.42 billion, compared to USD 437.1 billion in FY 2023-2024.

Services Exports (FY 2024-2025): Estimated at USD 341.1 billion, up from USD 325.3 billion in FY 2023-2024.

Trade Deficit: The merchandise trade deficit for FY 2024-2025 is projected to be around USD 238.02 billion, calculated as the difference between merchandise imports (USD 675.44 billion) and exports (USD 437.42 billion).

The positive export growth is attributed to strong performances in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, and services such as IT and business process outsourcing. Import declines are largely due to lower global commodity prices, particularly for crude oil, and policy measures to curb non-essential imports like gold.

Export Performance

India’s merchandise exports in FY 2024-2025 have shown resilience despite global headwinds. Key highlights include:

March 2024: Merchandise exports reached a fiscal-year high of USD 41.68 billion.

Non-Oil Exports: Forecasted at USD 382 billion, a significant contributor to total export growth.

Key Commodities: Petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and engineering goods led merchandise exports. Services exports, particularly IT, telecommunications, and financial services, grew by 7.9% in the 12 months ending February 2025.

The Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) projects a 2.2% increase in total merchandise exports to USD 446.5 billion for FY 2024-2025, driven by non-oil and non-gems and jewelry exports, which are expected to reach USD 350 billion.

Import Performance

Imports in FY 2024-2025 have been shaped by India’s energy needs, industrial requirements, and cultural demand for precious metals:

Crude Oil: Imports increased by 7.0% in April 2024 to USD 13.0 billion, reflecting India’s heavy reliance on foreign oil.

Gold: Imports surged by 214% in April 2024 to INR 25,978 crore (approximately USD 3.1 billion), driven by cultural demand and investment.

Silver: Imports rose by 21% in April 2024 to INR 1,119 crore (approximately USD 134 million).

Key Import Categories: Mineral fuels, electronics, machinery, and chemicals remain dominant. Imports of capital goods and consumer goods, such as computers and pharmaceuticals, also increased.

The decline in total imports by 5.66% in FY 2023-2024, sustained into FY 2024-2025, reflects lower global prices for commodities and government initiatives to promote domestic production under the “Make in India” campaign.

Top Five Trading Partners

India’s top five trading partners for FY 2023-2024 (April 2023–February 2024), based on total trade volume (exports plus imports), are listed below. These figures are sourced from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and are the most recent comprehensive data available. Given the continuity in trade patterns, these partners are likely to remain dominant in FY 2024-2025.

United States

Exports: USD 77.5 billion

Imports: USD 40.8 billion

Total Trade Volume: USD 118.3 billion

Key Exports: Pharmaceuticals, textiles, IT services, and gems and jewelry.

Key Imports: Aircraft, machinery, and optical instruments.

Note: Exports to the US saw a 1.32% decline, while imports dropped by 20% in FY 2023-2024, reflecting cautious trade dynamics.

China

Exports: USD 16.7 billion

Imports: USD 98.5 billion

Total Trade Volume: USD 115.2 billion

Key Exports: Iron ore, cotton, and organic chemicals.

Key Imports: Consumer electronics, computer hardware, and electrical machinery.

Note: China remains India’s largest import source, contributing to the trade deficit. Imports in FY 2023-2024 were nearly USD 100 billion, underscoring India’s reliance on Chinese goods.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Exports: USD 30.7 billion

Imports: USD 52.9 billion

Total Trade Volume: USD 83.6 billion

Key Exports: Petroleum products, gems and jewelry, and food products.

Key Imports: Crude oil, gold, and chemicals.

Note: The UAE is a key partner under India’s free trade agreement (FTA), with trade volumes growing steadily.

Russia

Exports: USD 4.1 billion

Imports: USD 61.6 billion

Total Trade Volume: USD 65.7 billion

Key Exports: Pharmaceuticals, machinery, and agricultural products.

Key Imports: Crude oil (one-third of India’s oil imports), fertilizers, and coal.

Note: Russia’s role as a crude oil supplier has surged since FY 2022-2023, significantly increasing import volumes.

Saudi Arabia

Exports: USD 10.7 billion

Imports: USD 32.7 billion

Total Trade Volume: USD 43.4 billion

Key Exports: Engineering goods, chemicals, and agricultural products.

Key Imports: Crude oil, petroleum products, and chemicals.

Note: Saudi Arabia remains a critical energy supplier, with imports driven by oil and gas.

Policy Initiatives and Outlook

The Government of India has implemented several measures to bolster exports and reduce the trade deficit:

New Foreign Trade Policy (2023–2028): Focuses on diversifying export markets and products, targeting electronics, pharmaceuticals, and processed foods.

Districts as Export Hubs: Identifies export potential in each district to promote localized trade.

Pradhan Mantri Gati Shakti: Enhances logistics and infrastructure to reduce export costs.

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): Imports from FTA partners (e.g., UAE, ASEAN) grew faster than overall imports, supporting trade diversification.

Exim Bank forecasts continued growth in non-oil exports for the first quarter of FY 2025-2026, though risks such as global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions persist. The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects global merchandise trade volume growth of 2.7% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, providing a favorable backdrop for India’s trade ambitions.

Conclusion

India’s trade performance in FY 2024-2025 demonstrates resilience, with total exports projected to reach USD 820.93 billion and a moderated import bill contributing to a slightly narrower trade deficit. The United States, China, UAE, Russia, and Saudi Arabia remain India’s top trading partners, with trade volumes reflecting India’s energy needs and growing export capabilities in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and services. Strategic policy interventions and a focus on diversification position India to strengthen its global trade standing, though challenges like import dependency and global uncertainties require sustained efforts. As India continues to integrate into global markets, its trade balance will be a key determinant of economic growth and stability.

Disclaimer: All data is sourced from official publications available as of May 8, 2025. Trade volumes for FY 2024-2025 are based on partial data (April–December 2024) and projections, with FY 2023-2024 figures used for top trading partners due to the lack of complete FY 2024-2025 data.